NextFin news, gold prices recorded a third straight weekly decline as of November 8, 2025, reflecting fading hopes of additional interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. The price of 24-carat gold in India retreated from Rs 1,20,770 to Rs 1,20,100 per 10 grams during the week, according to the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA). International bullion hovered around the $4,000 per ounce level but remained under pressure driven by a strengthened US dollar and diminished expectations for further monetary easing.
The US Federal Reserve had already implemented two 25-basis-point cuts in 2025 but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish tone in recent remarks suggested less aggressive future cuts. Market expectations for another Fed rate reduction in December plunged from nearly 90% probability to about 60%, according to futures markets. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index stayed near the 100-level, strengthening the currency and reducing gold’s attractiveness, especially as USD/INR climbed toward 89.
The prospect of monetary tightening moderating was initially bullish for gold earlier in 2025, with prices surging over 50% since January and peaking above $4,380 in October. However, more recent data complicated the outlook. Delays in official US government economic data due to the longest government shutdown on record led to reliance on private sector indicators, including ISM manufacturing and services PMIs ticking below the 50 contraction threshold, while private payrolls rose by 42,000, painting a mixed economic picture. Meanwhile, easing US-China trade tensions after agreements on tariff trimming and goods purchases diminished gold’s safe-haven demand somewhat.
Additionally, structural shifts in major consuming countries are impacting physical gold demand. China reduced its VAT offset on gold purchases and halved tax exemptions, causing banks to pause new retail gold accounts, according to Manav Modi, precious metals analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. This regulatory tightening in the world’s largest consumer of gold could cool physical demand and add downward pressure to prices.
The confluence of a stronger dollar, less aggressive Fed easing expectations, mixed economic signals, and regulatory changes in key markets collectively weigh on bullion prices. Gold’s traditional appeal as a hedge against inflation and a store of value in times of economic uncertainty faces headwinds when the dollar strengthens and interest rate cut expectations fade, as holding non-yielding gold becomes less attractive cost-wise.
Looking forward, gold prices will remain sensitive to evolving Federal Reserve policies, economic data releases once the US government reopens, and geopolitical developments. If the Fed delays or pauses its rate cutting cycle, the dollar could gain further, pressuring gold downwards. Conversely, renewed dovish signals or economic softening could revive gold’s safe-haven allure, potentially stabilizing or pushing prices upward. Fundamental demand from central banks for gold remains robust, as the US has recently added critical minerals such as uranium, copper, and silver to its strategic list, signaling long-term support for precious and industrial metals.
In summary, gold’s three-week losing streak in early November 2025 stems mainly from wavering market confidence in additional US Fed rate cuts and a firmer greenback, despite the Fed’s earlier easing moves. This reflects a complex interplay of monetary policy, macroeconomic data uncertainties due to government shutdown disruptions, trade diplomacy, and regulatory changes in major consumer regions. For investors and market participants, the near-term gold price trajectory is likely to hinge on Federal Reserve communication and economic data clarity once normal government operations resume, with safe-haven demand and currency dynamics continuing to be key drivers.
According to the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA) and analysis from Motilal Oswal Financial Services, the interplay of US monetary policy, dollar strength, and consumer regulation in China constitutes the critical nexus affecting gold markets this November 2025.
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