NextFin News - On December 24, 2025, a survey conducted by the Russian Levada Center among 1,618 respondents across 50 regions revealed that only 25% of Russians currently support the continuation of the war against Ukraine. This figure represents a historic low since the full-scale invasion initiated in early 2022. In contrast, 66% of those surveyed expressed a preference for transitioning toward peace negotiations. This research was carried out from December 11 to 19, 2025, and spans diverse demographics in Russia.
The poll also identified that support for ongoing military action remains predominantly among individuals who trust Russian state television and approve of the policies of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Conversely, backing for peace talks is notably higher among women (71%), younger respondents under 40 years (74%), residents of rural areas (72%), and those expressing dissatisfaction with the country's current direction (80%). Furthermore, individuals skeptical of Putin's performance (80%) and those trusting social media sources over state media (75%) are more inclined to endorse negotiations.
Andriy Kovalenko, Head of the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation, highlighted a concentrated faction around the Kremlin that is vehemently committed to prolonging the war. Kovalenko described this group as a radical core that benefits financially or politically from the conflict and insists on its continuation, underpinning the persistent divide within Russia's political landscape.
This shift in public opinion contrasts with earlier polls conducted in mid-2025, which registered higher levels of support for the war effort, with many advocating for a military victory or Ukraine’s capitulation before considering peace talks. The transition toward favoring dialogue suggests growing war fatigue and strategic reconsideration among the Russian populace.
Analyzing these findings reveals several underlying factors. The protracted nature of the conflict, mounting economic hardships due to sanctions and military expenditures, and rising casualties have likely eroded public support for a costly war. Moreover, generational and informational divides — especially between those relying on independent social media and those consuming predominantly state-controlled narratives — shape differing perceptions of the conflict’s legitimacy and prospects.
This change in public sentiment has potential strategic ramifications. For U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration and Western diplomatic efforts aiming to broker peace, the declining Russian public support for the war introduces a critical internal pressure point on the Kremlin. It could incentivize Russian leadership to reconsider maximalist military objectives and engage more constructively in peace negotiations. However, the entrenched position of the core pro-war faction around Putin complicates this dynamic, reflecting an ongoing struggle between radical elements and broader public inclinations.
From a geopolitical perspective, the poll’s data also signals a window of opportunity for multilateral peace initiatives. A populace increasingly favoring negotiation over armed conflict may reduce domestic resistance to compromises on contested territories. Furthermore, demographic trends showing peace preference especially among younger generations and rural residents suggest that long-term societal changes could reshape Russia’s foreign policy orientation.
Nevertheless, challenges remain. The Kremlin’s narrative control, economic elites profiting from the war economy, and nationalist elements rooted in the government apparatus pose hurdles to rapid conflict resolution. Simultaneously, contrasting sentiments in Ukraine, where a majority remain vigilant against future Russian aggression, indicate that any peace process requires robust guarantees and reconciliation frameworks.
Looking forward, monitoring shifts in Russian public opinion will be crucial to forecasting the conflict’s trajectory. Continued polling and analysis of demographic sentiment can provide indicators of potential policy shifts. For stakeholders engaged in international diplomacy, recognizing the internal Russian societal fractures offers strategic insight into leveraging public will towards a sustainable peace.
In summary, the Levada Center poll released in December 2025 marks a pivotal moment in understanding Russian societal attitudes toward the Ukraine war. With only one-quarter now supporting continued military action and a growing majority favoring peace talks, these trends portend pressure on Russian leadership to adapt and on international actors to capitalize on evolving conditions for conflict resolution.
Explore more exclusive insights at nextfin.ai.
