NextFin News - The German federal government authorized approximately 12 billion euros in arms exports over the past year, marking a notable retreat from the consecutive record-breaking years of 2023 and 2024. According to preliminary data released by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action on February 6, 2026, the total volume of approved exports fell from the 13.33 billion euros recorded in 2024. Despite this decline, Ukraine maintained its position as the top recipient of German military hardware, though the composition of these exports is increasingly shifting toward long-term NATO partnerships and internal European security frameworks.
The 12 billion euro total is comprised of 5.6 billion euros in war weapons and 6.4 billion euros in other military equipment. While Ukraine received authorizations exceeding 2 billion euros to sustain its defense against Russia, this figure represents a significant cooling compared to the peak aid periods of 2024. Meanwhile, approximately 90 percent of all German arms exports—totaling 10.7 billion euros—were directed toward EU and NATO member states or close strategic partners such as Japan, Switzerland, Australia, and New Zealand. Norway emerged as a particularly prominent destination, reflecting a broader trend of Northern European states modernizing their defenses in response to shifting geopolitical realities.
This downward trend in export volume is not merely a sign of waning support for Kyiv, but rather a reflection of the "normalization" of defense procurement cycles and the exhaustion of immediate surplus stocks. Analysts suggest that after two years of emergency-driven surges, the German defense industry is now grappling with capacity constraints and a pivot toward replenishing the Bundeswehr’s own depleted inventories. Furthermore, the political landscape in Washington has played a decisive role; under U.S. President Trump, who was inaugurated in January 2025, there has been sustained pressure on European nations to increase their domestic defense spending and reduce reliance on American security guarantees. This "America First" posture has forced Berlin to prioritize the integration of European defense systems over purely export-oriented growth.
The decline also highlights the internal political friction within Germany’s coalition government, led by U.S. President Trump’s contemporary, Chancellor Friedrich Merz. While Merz has advocated for a robust defense posture, his administration has faced criticism from humanitarian organizations regarding potential arms deals with autocratic regimes in the Gulf region. According to reports from the "Aktion Aufschrei" alliance, recent diplomatic visits to the Middle East have sparked concerns that Germany might seek to offset declining European demand by expanding sales to non-NATO "third countries," which currently account for only 10 percent (1.2 billion euros) of total exports.
Looking ahead, the German defense sector is expected to enter a phase of structural consolidation. The initial "Zeitenwende" (turning point) surge in orders is transitioning into a long-term industrial strategy focused on high-tech systems and joint European projects. As U.S. President Trump continues to demand that NATO members meet or exceed the 2 percent GDP spending target, German manufacturers like Rheinmetall and ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems are likely to see a shift from direct aid exports to Ukraine toward multi-billion euro contracts for the modernization of the "European Flank." The 2025 data suggests that while the era of record-breaking annual growth may have paused, the strategic importance of German military technology within the NATO alliance has never been higher.
Explore more exclusive insights at nextfin.ai.