NextFin News - The most active bearish trade in SPDR Gold Shares after gold’s recent slide reaches as far as June 2028. CNBC reported on June 10 that the most popular GLD put by volume is an in-the-money 380 strike expiring today, while the second-most popular is a 240 strike expiring in June 2028, priced at $11.50 per contract and implying another 40% downside over the next two years.
That activity followed a sharp break that flushed out momentum traders and triggered stop-loss orders around $4,400 an ounce. In CNBC’s account, Nigam Arora, founder of the Arora Report, said the drop was intensified by selling from Turkey’s central bank, gold sales by Gulf nations including Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, India’s higher import duties and chart-driven selling once gold fell below $4,400.
The June 2028 put is notable, but it is still only one options trade. A deep out-of-the-money put with that maturity is not the same as a call from a major bank or a signal from the physical market. It can reflect a cheap way to press a bearish view after a violent move, or a hedge against more liquidation if the selling has further to run.
That distinction matters because options volume can exaggerate sentiment. When support near $4,400 breaks, chart-based selling can feed on itself, especially in a crowded trade. The next leg lower often comes less from new conviction than from forced exits, hedging and portfolio rebalancing. In that kind of market, options can show where traders see risk, but not necessarily where they see fair value.
Arora’s explanation mixes temporary pressures with potentially longer-lasting ones. Selling by Turkey’s central bank would point to domestic currency stress. Gold sales by Gulf states would suggest funding pressure tied to regional conflict. India’s higher duties would weigh on demand in one of the world’s biggest consumer markets. If those forces persist, they could keep gold under pressure well beyond a speculative unwind. If they are tied to local or short-lived conditions, their effect on the global price may fade much faster.
That is why a put expiring in June 2028 stands out. A two-year bearish horizon asks for more than a momentum trade, yet it has less backing than a broad macro view built on wider data. It assumes the forces behind the current decline will outlast any policy pivot, demand recovery or investor return. It also assumes gold cannot retake the technical area it lost and build a new base.
Put buying late in a selloff does not always mean traders are convinced a 40% collapse is coming. Some are protecting inventory or fund exposure. Others are trying to profit from a prolonged downturn. In gold, those motives can overlap and make the market look more unified than it really is.
Past gold drawdowns are a reason for caution. Big declines have happened before, but they have rarely run in a straight line for two years without interruption. Gold reacts to real yields, the dollar, central-bank reserve management, jewelry demand, ETF flows and risk sentiment, and each of those can shift quickly. A rebound in inflation expectations, a softer Federal Reserve stance, renewed geopolitical stress or a halt in official-sector selling could all disrupt the bearish case before June 2028.
CNBC also said messaging from gold miners is “more hopeful.” That suggests at least some of the industry sees the current weakness as manageable rather than the start of a prolonged collapse. Miners can hedge, cut capital spending or wait out volatility when spot prices fall. That does not establish a floor, but it does show the response is not simply panic.
The case for a two-year downturn still rests on a narrow base: one large options trade, one market commentator’s reading and several demand-side anecdotes. It may prove right. But a stronger bearish case would normally be reinforced by broader evidence from futures positioning, ETF redemptions, central-bank buying or selling data, real-rate trends and dollar strength. For now, the 240-strike June 2028 put is clear evidence of how far some traders are willing to extend the bearish view, not proof that gold will stay under pressure until 2028.
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