NextFin News - Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar launched a high-stakes diplomatic marathon on Sunday, holding urgent telephone consultations with his counterparts in Iran, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates as a 48-hour ultimatum from U.S. President Trump to reopen the Strait of Hormuz nears its expiration. The diplomatic surge comes as the global energy market braces for a potential escalation of the conflict that began on February 28, with U.S. President Trump threatening to strike Iranian power plants and desalination facilities if the strategic chokepoint is not cleared for traffic by Tuesday.
The closure has effectively paralyzed India’s energy security architecture. According to reports from the Indian Express, the number of vessels successfully navigating the Strait has plummeted to near-zero over the past month, leaving New Delhi scrambling to secure alternative supplies for a domestic economy already feeling the pinch of rising fuel costs. Jaishankar’s sixth conversation with Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi since the outbreak of hostilities underscores the gravity of the situation for the world’s third-largest oil consumer, which relies on the Persian Gulf for the vast majority of its crude and liquefied natural gas imports.
Market reaction to the looming deadline has been swift and unforgiving. U.S. crude oil prices jumped 2.35% to $114.16 per barrel in late trading on Sunday, reflecting fears that the "48-hour window" provided by U.S. President Trump could mark the transition from a maritime blockade to a full-scale infrastructure war. While OPEC+ members agreed on Sunday to a modest production increase of 206,000 barrels per day for May, analysts remain skeptical about how this additional supply will reach global markets if the primary exit route remains under Iranian threat.
The geopolitical calculus is further complicated by the domestic political landscape in Washington. U.S. President Trump, who inaugurated his second term in January 2025, has adopted a "maximum pressure" strategy that far exceeds the scope of his first administration’s sanctions. By threatening civilian infrastructure—including bridges and desalination plants—the U.S. President is signaling a willingness to inflict systemic economic pain on Tehran to force a reopening of the waterway. This stance has created a precarious balancing act for New Delhi, which must maintain its strategic partnership with Washington while preventing a total collapse of its energy ties with the Gulf.
India’s outreach to Qatar and the UAE is particularly telling of its diversified anxiety. While Iran controls the northern shore of the Strait, Qatar is India’s largest supplier of LNG, and the UAE is a critical node in the regional logistics network. Any military strike on Iranian infrastructure would likely trigger retaliatory measures that could endanger the energy assets of these neighboring states, potentially leading to a regional conflagration that would render the Strait of Hormuz impassable for the foreseeable future.
Despite the intensity of the diplomatic efforts, the path to a resolution remains obscured by mutual distrust. Tehran has publicly rejected the U.S. ultimatum, claiming it has the right to defend its territorial waters against what it terms "unprovoked aggression" by the U.S. and Israel. For India, the stakes extend beyond the price at the pump; a prolonged closure of the Strait threatens to derail its post-2025 economic recovery and force a painful realignment of its foreign policy priorities in an increasingly bipolar Middle East.
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