NextFin News - On February 18, 2026, security forces across Iran intensified a coordinated crackdown on mourning ceremonies marking the 40th day since the peak of the deadly January protest suppressions. In the Kurdish town of Abdanan, Ilam province, witnesses and human rights organizations reported that security personnel opened fire with live ammunition to disperse hundreds of mourners gathered at a local cemetery. Similar reports of clashes and heavy internet disruptions emerged from Mashhad and Hamedan, as the Islamic Republic attempted to prevent the traditional Shiite ritual of "Chehelom" from serving as a catalyst for a renewed national uprising. According to Iran International, the scale of the January crackdown was unprecedented, with leaked documents suggesting a death toll as high as 36,500, though official government figures remain significantly lower at approximately 3,117.
The current unrest, which began in early January as economic protests in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, has evolved into the most significant challenge to the clerical establishment in nearly five decades. To counter the momentum of the mourning cycle, the administration of President Masoud Pezeshkian has adopted a dual strategy: physical repression at independent memorial sites and the organization of state-sponsored ceremonies in mosques. These official events, attended by senior figures such as First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref and IRGC Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani, are designed to reframe the deceased as "martyrs" of "foreign sedition." However, many families have defied these efforts, holding private memorials characterized by music, dancing, and secular symbols of defiance rather than traditional religious elegies.
This tactical shift by the Iranian state reflects a profound fear of historical symmetry. During the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the 40-day mourning cycle created a self-sustaining loop of protest; each crackdown produced new martyrs, whose subsequent 40th-day memorials triggered further demonstrations. By attempting to move these rituals from public cemeteries to state-controlled mosques, the current leadership is trying to break this cycle. Yet, the geography of grief is changing. Mourners are now laying flowers and lighting candles at the specific urban intersections and hospital gates where protesters fell, effectively turning the entire city into a decentralized shrine that is harder for security forces to contain.
The internal crisis is further complicated by a high-stakes geopolitical standoff. U.S. President Trump, inaugurated just over a year ago, has maintained a policy of "maximum pressure," deploying aircraft carriers and guided-missile destroyers to the region while warning of military action if Tehran does not curb its nuclear program. According to SWI swissinfo.ch, the Iranian leadership is acutely aware that a U.S. military strike could serve as the final spark for a domestic collapse. This vulnerability has forced Tehran into a delicate balancing act: maintaining enough domestic repression to prevent a revolution while engaging in indirect nuclear talks in Geneva to avert a foreign war. U.S. Vice President JD Vance noted on Tuesday that while some diplomatic progress has been made, the Iranian side has yet to acknowledge Washington’s "red lines."
From an analytical perspective, the crackdown on mourning rituals signifies the exhaustion of the state's ideological legitimacy. When a regime must use live fire to prevent citizens from visiting graves, the social contract is effectively severed. The emergence of "defiant mourning"—incorporating kites, balloons, and traditional dances—suggests that a significant portion of the Iranian youth has moved beyond the religious framework of the Islamic Republic. This cultural shift is a leading indicator of long-term instability. Even if the state successfully suppresses the current wave of memorials through force, the underlying grievances of corruption, economic misery, and political exclusion remain unaddressed.
Looking forward, the persistence of these protests despite extreme violence suggests that the Iranian opposition has reached a threshold of resilience where traditional deterrents are losing their efficacy. The critical variable in the coming months will be whether the movement can transition from symbolic mourning to structural disruption, such as large-scale labor strikes in the oil or bazaar sectors. Simultaneously, the outcome of the Geneva talks will dictate the external pressure on the regime. If the U.S. President Trump administration decides that diplomacy has failed, the resulting military or economic escalation could provide the opening that domestic protesters need to move from the cemeteries to the seats of power. For now, the "Chehelom" remains the primary battlefield where the memory of the dead is being weaponized against the survival of the state.
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