NextFin News - Micron Technology (MU) shares defied traditional market logic this week, posting a 3.4% gain on Friday, February 6, 2026, even as industry reports confirmed the company was omitted from Nvidia’s first-tier supplier list for the upcoming HBM4 (High Bandwidth Memory) generation. According to Investing.com, several prominent analysts slashed their supply forecasts for Micron’s HBM4 shipments to Nvidia to zero, citing technical qualification delays and a strategic pivot by Nvidia toward SK Hynix and Samsung for the initial 2026 rollout. Despite this loss of a high-profile contract, Micron’s stock price steadied at $114.20 in mid-day trading in New York, supported by robust demand for its existing HBM3E products and a favorable domestic policy environment under the current administration.
The divergence between the loss of a flagship contract and the upward movement of the stock price highlights a fundamental shift in how Wall Street values semiconductor firms in 2026. While Nvidia remains the primary gatekeeper of the AI hardware ecosystem, the market is increasingly pricing in the "scarcity value" of domestic memory production. U.S. President Trump has recently doubled down on the 'CHIPS Act 2.0' initiatives, which provide significant tax credits and direct subsidies to companies that maintain leading-edge fabrication facilities within the United States. For Micron, which is currently scaling its mega-fab in Idaho and progressing on its New York site, these policy tailwinds act as a valuation floor that offsets specific product-cycle setbacks.
From a technical perspective, the exclusion from the first wave of HBM4 orders is a result of the transition to a 12-layer and 16-layer vertical stacking architecture that requires advanced hybrid bonding techniques. According to DIGITIMES Asia, SK Hynix has maintained a temporary lead in this specific packaging yield. However, Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO of Micron, has signaled that the company is focusing its capital expenditure on maximizing the yield of HBM3E, which remains the workhorse for the current Blackwell Ultra and early Rubin-series AI accelerators. By focusing on the high-yield HBM3E market, Micron is generating record free cash flow, which reached an estimated $2.8 billion in the last quarter, providing a buffer against the R&D intensity required for the HBM4 catch-up phase.
The broader impact of U.S. President Trump’s trade policies also plays a critical role in this market dynamic. With renewed tariffs on high-end electronic components from East Asia, the total cost of ownership for memory sourced from overseas is rising. This makes Micron’s domestic supply chain more attractive to other hyperscalers like Amazon and Google, who are increasingly designing their own custom AI silicon (TPUs and Trainium chips). These firms are less reliant on the specific HBM4 timelines dictated by Nvidia and are willing to secure long-term supply agreements with Micron to ensure regional supply chain stability. This diversification of the customer base is a key reason why the loss of the Nvidia HBM4 contract did not trigger a sell-off.
Looking ahead, the semiconductor industry is entering a period of "bifurcated innovation." While the race for HBM4 represents the bleeding edge, the volume of the market remains firmly rooted in the 8-layer and 12-layer HBM3E configurations where Micron is highly competitive. Analysts expect Micron to re-enter the Nvidia HBM4 supply chain by late 2026 or early 2027 as the technology matures and Nvidia seeks to reduce its reliance on Korean suppliers. The current stock performance suggests that investors view the HBM4 delay as a temporary hurdle rather than a structural failure. As long as U.S. President Trump continues to prioritize domestic semiconductor sovereignty, Micron remains a strategic asset that transcends individual product cycles.
In conclusion, the resilience of Micron’s stock in the face of the Nvidia HBM4 news reflects a maturing AI investment thesis. The market is no longer reacting solely to "Nvidia-centric" news but is instead weighing geopolitical security, domestic fiscal policy, and diversified cash flows. For Micron, the path forward involves leveraging the current administration's support to bridge the technical gap in HBM4 while dominating the lucrative HBM3E market that will power the majority of AI servers through the remainder of 2026.
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