NextFin News - The escalation of military conflict in the Middle East has triggered a sharp selloff across emerging markets, but Ninety One Plc, South Africa’s largest investment manager, is moving against the tide by increasing its exposure to domestic equities. The firm argues that the market reaction to the war in Iran has pushed valuations for South African companies to levels that are no longer supported by their underlying earnings potential. This contrarian stance comes as the South African rand fell 0.48% to 16.3752 per dollar on Monday, reflecting a broader flight to safety that has also pushed Brent crude to $90.38 per barrel and spot gold to a record $4,786.895 per ounce.
Ninety One, which manages approximately $160 billion, has historically maintained a constructive outlook on South African structural reforms, often positioning itself as a "pragmatic bull" on the nation’s recovery. The firm’s investment team, led by strategists who have navigated multiple cycles of South African political and economic volatility, suggests that the current geopolitical shock is masking a domestic fundamental story that remains largely intact. According to Bloomberg, the firm views the recent price drops as a disconnect between global risk sentiment and local corporate resilience, particularly in non-resource sectors that had been poised for a breakout in 2026.
This optimistic assessment is not currently the dominant view among global macro funds, many of whom remain wary of South Africa’s exposure to energy price shocks and the potential for sustained capital outflows from emerging markets. While Ninety One emphasizes the "buying opportunity" created by war-induced volatility, other institutional players have expressed concern that a prolonged conflict could derail the mild disinflation trend that had been supporting the South African Reserve Bank’s policy outlook. The divergence in opinion highlights a classic split between local specialists who focus on valuation floors and global generalists who prioritize liquidity and risk-off hedging during times of war.
The success of Ninety One’s strategy hinges on several critical assumptions, most notably that the conflict remains contained and does not trigger a systemic collapse in global trade or a permanent shift in energy costs. If Brent crude remains elevated above $90 for an extended period, the resulting inflationary pressure could force the South African central bank to maintain higher interest rates, potentially squeezing the very domestic consumers that Ninety One’s favored stocks rely upon. Furthermore, the rand’s sensitivity to the U.S. dollar—which often strengthens during geopolitical crises—remains a significant headwind for dollar-based returns in the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.
Market participants are also weighing the impact of U.S. President Trump’s foreign policy on the region’s stability. The administration’s approach to Middle Eastern tensions and trade tariffs adds a layer of complexity to the emerging market landscape that was not present during previous cycles of volatility. While Ninety One’s long-term track record lends weight to its analysis, the firm’s current positioning represents a high-conviction bet that the "war premium" currently priced into South African assets will eventually evaporate, allowing domestic fundamentals to reassert themselves as the primary driver of stock performance.
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