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North Carolina’s treasurer is betting on OpenAI and Anthropic, not SpaceX, and valuation is the dividing line

Summarized by NextFin AI
  • North Carolina State Treasurer Brad Briner announced on CNBC that he will not invest in SpaceX due to its high valuation, which he believes is already fully priced at around $1.8 trillion.
  • Briner manages approximately $200 billion for state pensions and aims for a high single-digit return, indicating a preference for investments like OpenAI and Anthropic over SpaceX.
  • Despite SpaceX's dominance in the rocket launch and satellite internet markets, Briner argues that scarcity alone does not ensure safety and that the company's potential upside may already be reflected in its IPO price.
  • Briner's cautious stance contrasts with private investors who continue to pay high prices for tech companies, suggesting a divergence in investment strategies between public pension funds and private markets.

NextFin News - North Carolina State Treasurer Brad Briner said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Wednesday that he will not buy SpaceX for the state pension portfolio because the Elon Musk-led aerospace company’s valuation is too rich. SpaceX plans to sell 555.6 million shares at $135 apiece, raising about $75 billion and implying a market value of roughly $1.8 trillion, according to CNBC, as it prepares to price its initial public offering on Thursday and begin trading Friday.

Briner controls about $200 billion for North Carolina’s teachers, firefighters and police officers. He said the fund is trying to earn a “high single digit, predictable rate of return” for retirees, while SpaceX at about $1.75 trillion to $1.8 trillion already looks “fully priced.”

His stance is more conservative than that of many private-market buyers, who have continued to pay steep prices for sought-after technology companies. Briner oversees one of the largest public retirement pools in the U.S., and his comments point to an investor willing to put money into artificial intelligence while passing on late-stage space exposure at this price.

North Carolina has invested about $40 million in OpenAI and committed roughly $250 million to Anthropic earlier this year. Briner said that position is now worth more than $600 million. Those gains help explain why his office appears more comfortable backing AI companies it believes offer a better risk-reward profile than buying SpaceX near the top of its valuation range.

SpaceX holds dominant positions in rocket launches and satellite internet, and that scarcity has been a major draw for private investors. Briner’s point is that scarcity alone does not provide a margin of safety. His view is that much of the company’s upside may already be reflected in the IPO price, leaving pension capital more exposed if growth slows, the capital intensity of the business rises, or public-market sentiment cools after the debut. He did not argue that SpaceX is a bad business. He argued that even exceptional businesses can become poor investments when the entry price is extreme.

The timing adds to the debate because SpaceX is expected to be one of the largest initial public offerings in history. Briner said on CNBC that there has been a “pricing issue” around SpaceX for roughly a year, indicating this is a valuation view he has held over time rather than a reaction to a single trading event.

His decision is not a market consensus. A public pension fund has to focus on liquidity, governance and long-horizon risk-adjusted returns, while some private investors may accept lower near-term certainty in exchange for optionality on a platform that could still expand across launch, broadband and defense. SpaceX’s IPO structure, pricing power and investor demand may reflect goals that differ sharply from those of a state retirement system. North Carolina’s roughly $290 million combined commitment to OpenAI and Anthropic now stands at more than $600 million, while SpaceX gets a pass at around $1.8 trillion.

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Insights

What are the key financial principles guiding North Carolina's pension investment strategy?

What factors contributed to the high valuation of SpaceX prior to its IPO?

How has North Carolina's investment in OpenAI and Anthropic performed compared to SpaceX?

What recent updates have been made regarding SpaceX's initial public offering?

How do Briner's views on SpaceX's valuation reflect broader industry trends?

What challenges does SpaceX face that could impact its post-IPO growth?

What controversies exist around high valuations in the tech and aerospace sectors?

How does North Carolina's investment strategy differ from private-market buyers?

What are the potential long-term impacts of investing in AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic?

What lessons can be drawn from North Carolina's decision to avoid investing in SpaceX?

How have private investors reacted to the high valuations of technology companies?

What risks are associated with investing in companies with extreme valuations?

What is the significance of liquidity and governance in public pension fund investments?

How does scarcity influence investment decisions in the aerospace sector?

What alternative investment opportunities might arise from a cooling sentiment towards SpaceX?

How has North Carolina's commitment to AI evolved over recent years?

What are the implications of SpaceX's pricing power for investors?

How do public pension funds approach risk-adjusted returns differently than private investors?

What historical cases illustrate the challenges of investing in high-valuation companies?

What potential evolution directions might we see in the tech investment landscape?

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