NextFin News - In a significant escalation of European defense rhetoric, U.S. President Trump’s second administration is witnessing a fundamental re-evaluation of the continent’s security architecture. On February 15, 2026, Polish President Karol Nawrocki declared that Poland must begin developing its own nuclear weapons to counter the "aggressive, imperial stance" of the Russian Federation. Speaking in an interview with Polsat News, Nawrocki emphasized that Poland sits on the "brink of armed conflict" and argued that the nation’s security strategy must now be built upon independent nuclear capability. This announcement follows the expiration of the New START treaty on February 5, which has effectively ended the 50-year era of formal nuclear arms control between the U.S. and Russia.
According to Politico, Nawrocki’s stance is not an isolated sentiment but part of a broader European trend toward strategic autonomy. The Polish leader’s call for "nuclear potential" comes as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron engage in high-level consultations regarding a European nuclear deterrent. The shift is driven by a growing perception in Warsaw and other European capitals that the U.S. commitment to NATO’s Article 5 may be conditional under the current administration. U.S. President Trump has recently ordered the Pentagon to resume nuclear testing to match the capabilities of Russia and China, while simultaneously pushing for a new trilateral deal that remains in the early stages of negotiation.
The geopolitical drivers behind Nawrocki’s proposal are rooted in a deteriorating regional security environment. Since the beginning of 2025, the conflict in Eastern Europe has intensified, with Russia maintaining a high-pressure military posture along the Polish and Baltic borders. The expiration of the New START treaty removed the last remaining guardrails on the deployment of tactical nuclear warheads, leading to what analysts describe as a "security vacuum" in Central Europe. Poland, which has historically been the most vocal advocate for a permanent U.S. military presence, is now signaling that even the "Fort Trump" model of conventional deterrence may no longer be sufficient against a nuclear-armed adversary that has shown a willingness to ignore international norms.
From a technical and legal perspective, Poland’s path to nuclearization is fraught with complexity. As a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), any move toward an independent program would necessitate a withdrawal from international obligations, a step that would likely trigger severe diplomatic friction within the European Union. However, Nawrocki’s rhetoric suggests a preference for a "dual-track" approach: seeking a greater role in NATO’s nuclear sharing program while simultaneously laying the groundwork for domestic research. This mirrors the "nuclear hedging" strategies seen in other middle powers, where the capability to develop a weapon is maintained as a latent deterrent.
The economic implications of such a shift are substantial. Poland has already increased its defense spending to over 4% of its GDP, the highest ratio in NATO. Transitioning to a nuclear-capable military would require a multi-decade investment in specialized infrastructure, delivery systems—such as the F-35 fleet already being integrated—and sophisticated command-and-control networks. According to Adevarul, German experts estimate that a coordinated European nuclear program could take at least three years to reach initial operational capability, but for a single nation like Poland, the timeline and cost would be significantly more demanding.
Looking forward, the trend toward European nuclearization appears to be accelerating. The Munich Security Conference, held earlier this month, revealed a continent no longer content to wait for Washington’s lead. If the U.S. continues to prioritize a trilateral balance with China and Russia over traditional European collective security, nations like Poland may view the risks of NPT withdrawal as secondary to the risk of existential conflict. The emergence of a "Polish Nuclear Project" would not only redefine the balance of power in the East but could also force a radical restructuring of the European Union’s own defense identity, potentially leading to a multi-polar nuclear landscape within the Western alliance.
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