NextFin News - Sudan’s descent into a fragmented, resource-starved landscape reached a grim milestone this week as the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) entered its third year. The war, which began in April 2023, has now engineered the world’s largest displacement crisis, with 14 million people—nearly a third of the population—forced from their homes. According to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), approximately 9 million remain internally displaced, while 4.4 million have crossed borders into neighboring states like Chad and South Sudan, threatening to destabilize an already fragile regional economy.
The economic backbone of the country is effectively broken. In December 2025, the RSF captured the strategic Heglig oil field, a move that halted remaining production and severed a critical artery of state revenue. This territorial shift followed the fall of el-Fasher in North Darfur, a former humanitarian hub that has now become a focal point of confirmed famine. Data from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) indicates that over 24.6 million people face acute food insecurity, with global acute malnutrition rates exceeding 30% in parts of Darfur and Kordofan—well above the emergency threshold for famine.
The collapse of the formal economy has given way to a predatory war economy where starvation is increasingly used as a strategic lever. Marie-Helene Verney, the UNHCR representative in Sudan, noted that the scale of the crisis is now unprecedented, with a quarter of the population in flight. The World Food Programme (WFP) has warned of imminent "pipeline breaks," projecting that without an urgent $695 million injection, food rations will be cut by 50% to 70% across the country by the end of April 2026. Currently, the 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan remains only 25% funded, reflecting a widening gap between escalating needs and international donor fatigue.
Beyond the hunger crisis, the systematic destruction of infrastructure has paralyzed the healthcare sector. The World Health Organization (WHO) reports that 70% of health facilities in conflict zones are non-functional. This vacuum has allowed cholera to spread to all 18 states, with over 113,000 cases recorded since 2024. The human toll is staggering; while official records from ACLED cited roughly 30,000 deaths by late 2024, more recent estimates from the BBC and other major outlets suggest the true figure likely exceeds 150,000, including half a million children lost to malnutrition and preventable disease.
The conflict has also seen a resurgence of ethnically targeted violence, particularly in Darfur. The Strategic Initiative for Women in the Horn of Africa (SIHA) has verified nearly 1,300 incidents of sexual and gender-based violence, with 87% of identified perpetrators linked to the RSF. These patterns of violence, often targeting non-Arab communities such as the Masalit and Fur, have led to calls for international war crimes investigations. In response, the U.S. and UK have intensified sanctions on RSF commanders and the mercenary networks—some reportedly involving Colombian recruits—that sustain their operations.
Despite a proposed "Quartet" roadmap for a three-month humanitarian truce involving the U.S., Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, a diplomatic breakthrough remains elusive. The SAF has largely rejected the proposal, while RSF unilateral ceasefires have failed to materialize on the ground. As the fighting pushes further into the Kordofan region, the risk of total state collapse grows. The loss of the Heglig oil fields and the siege of cities like Kadugli suggest that the warring factions are prioritizing the seizure of dwindling assets over any viable path toward a civilian-led transition.
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