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Pre‑Market Performance
- U.S. index futures: Nasdaq 100 25,535.5 (-0.52%, -134.5 pts); S&P 500 6,943.5 (-0.32%, -22.25 pts); Dow Jones 49,015 (+0.01%, +7 pts).
- Europe: FTSE 100 10,315.61 (+0.90%); CAC 40 8,188.48 (+0.76%); DAX 24,747.21 (+0.85%).
- Commodities/FX: Brent crude ~$66.10 (-4.6%); WTI ~$61.97 (-5.0%) as geopolitical risk premium fades following U.S.–Iran contact. barrons.com
- Gold: Comex futures near $4,490/oz (-5% vs Fri) after a sharp two‑session unwind; intraday swings remain elevated. finance.yahoo.com
- U.S. dollar: Dollar index firmer alongside the metals selloff; crypto also under pressure. barrons.com
Macroeconomic Policy and Data
- Fed policy: The FOMC kept the fed funds target at 3.50%–3.75% on Jan 28 (10–2 vote), noting “solid” activity, stabilizing unemployment and “somewhat elevated” inflation; implementation rates (IORB 3.65%, ON RRP 3.50%) were maintained. Markets now price a prolonged pause into spring. federalreserve.gov
- CPI (Dec): Headline +0.3% m/m, +2.7% y/y (consensus +0.3%, +2.7%); core +0.2% m/m, +2.6% y/y (consensus +0.3%, +2.7%). The print supports the Fed’s hold‑for‑now stance. bls.gov
- PPI (Dec): +0.5% m/m (consensus +0.3%); +3.0% y/y. Services margins led the upside—watch for modest pass‑through to core PCE. apnews.com
- Labor market (Dec): Nonfarm payrolls +50k (consensus +55k); unemployment rate 4.4% (Nov 4.5%). Softer job creation keeps policy data‑dependent. cbsnews.com
- GDP/PCE timing: Due to the post‑shutdown calendar, BEA’s Q4‑2025 GDP (advance) and Dec PCE are rescheduled to Feb 20, 8:30 a.m. ET. bea.gov
- Today’s watch: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) at 10:00 a.m. ET; the release follows Dec’s contractionary 47.9. Prices‑paid gauge expected ~59.3. ismworld.org
Takeaway: A hawkish‑hold Fed plus firm CPI/PPI leaves cuts on hold, while today’s ISM can sway near‑term rate path and risk appetite. Metals and oil volatility adds cross‑asset noise to equities and credit spreads.
Hot News
- Precious‑metals shakeout spills into global risk assets. Gold and silver extended Friday’s plunge before paring losses; CME margin hikes and crowded positioning catalyzed the unwind. Equity futures and miners remain sensitive to further swings. ft.com
- Oil slides as Iran tensions ease. Brent fell back toward $66 as comments that Tehran and Washington are “seriously talking” helped deflate the risk premium. barrons.com
- Fed leadership transition in focus. The White House named former governor Kevin Warsh as nominee for Fed chair, a headline that fed into the safe‑haven reversal and policy‑path debate. forbes.com
- Regulators press Google on AI/data access. The EU launched DMA specification proceedings and the UK CMA proposed conduct rules around AI overviews and data sharing—potential implications for search economics and AI distribution. apnews.com
U.S. Stock Focus
- Apple (AAPL): Record holiday‑quarter. Q1 FY26 revenue $143.8B (+16% y/y) and EPS $2.84 set all‑time highs; iPhone sales $85.3B (+23%) and Services at a record $30.0B. Apple declared a $0.26 dividend payable Feb 12. apple.com
- Microsoft (MSFT): Cloud/AI power beats. FQ2 revenue $81.3B (+17% y/y), non‑GAAP EPS $4.14; Azure +39% with guidance implying high‑30s growth. Results reflected updated OpenAI accounting while reiterating long‑term AI spend. microsoft.com
- Nvidia (NVDA): OpenAI mega‑funding questions. Reports suggest the rumored $100B OpenAI investment is unlikely in its original form; a smaller, still‑large check remains possible, adding nuance to Nvidia’s AI capital cycle narrative. tomshardware.com
- Meta Platforms (META): Ad strength, heavier AI capex. Q4 revenue $59.89B (+24%), EPS $8.88; Q1 revenue guide $53.5B–$56.5B. Management flagged substantially higher 2026 AI infrastructure investment. apnews.com
- Alphabet (GOOGL): EU/UK scrutiny on AI and data access. Brussels began DMA specification proceedings and the UK CMA proposed limits around AI overviews; Alphabet’s Q4/FY25 call is slated for Feb 4. apnews.com
- Tesla (TSLA): Earnings pivot and FSD shift. Q4 EPS $0.50 on $24.9B revenue; management emphasized robotaxi/AI focus. Separately, FSD will move to subscription‑only from Feb 14, with potential China approvals eyed in early 2026. nasdaq.com
- Exxon Mobil (XOM): Production records, shareholder returns. Q4 EPS ex‑items $1.71; FY25 earnings $28.8B; record refining throughput and strong Permian/Guyana volumes; FY shareholder distributions $37.2B. corporate.exxonmobil.com
- Chevron (CVX): Mixed quarter, cautious Venezuela stance. Q4 adjusted EPS $1.52; capex guided at $18–$19B for 2026; management pledged disciplined spending despite political pressure to increase Venezuelan investment. chevron.com
- Ford (F): China EV tie‑up chatter and denials. Reports of exploratory JV talks with Xiaomi (and outreach to BYD) to manufacture EVs in the U.S. were followed by explicit denials from Ford and Xiaomi; headlines nevertheless spotlight competitive dynamics in U.S. EVs. investing.com
- Amazon (AMZN): AI infrastructure push, earnings ahead. OpenAI’s seven‑year, $38B AWS deal underscores Amazon’s AI cloud positioning; the company reports Q4/FY25 on Feb 5 (5:00 p.m. ET). investing.com
Notes on Market Drivers
Equity futures reflect cross‑currents: a firmer dollar and commodity volatility after the metals slump; oil’s drop on easing Iran risks; and a Fed on hold with growth still described as “solid.” Near‑term direction likely hinges on ISM details (prices/employment) and whether the metals unwind stabilizes into the U.S. cash open. ft.com
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